{"id":21,"date":"2020-12-25T15:32:28","date_gmt":"2020-12-25T15:32:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/muhaaz.com\/saham\/?p=21"},"modified":"2020-12-25T15:41:50","modified_gmt":"2020-12-25T15:41:50","slug":"saham-nyangkut-pilih-cut-loss-atau-averaging-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/muhaaz.com\/saham\/saham-nyangkut-pilih-cut-loss-atau-averaging-down\/","title":{"rendered":"Saham Nyangkut Pilih Cut Loss atau Averaging Down?"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

Peristiwa “nyangkut” biasa ketika kita membeli saham di harga mahal, sedangkan sekarang harga malah murah. Tapi harga saham tak kunjung naik. Dalam konteks ini, saham kita belum dijual sehingga terjadi floating loss<\/em>. Artinya, nilai saham kita minus di halaman portfolio. Kalau kita jual sekarang (cut loss<\/em>), maka otomatis akan rugi.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Jika anda seorang scalper <\/em>atau trader swing, maka hal ini seharusnya tidak terjadi. Tujuan dari trading adalah meraih profit sebanyak-banyaknya dan membatasi kerugian sekecil mungkin. Namun, nyangkut bisa terjadi ketika kita tahu harga turun <\/strong>tapi kita takut<\/strong> menjual<\/strong> saham. Bahkan all-in<\/em> modal buat beli semua yang akhirnya bertengger di atas.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Mind set para nyangkuters berharap bahwa suatu saat harga akan naik lagi. Entah kapan bulan depan, tahun depan, yang penting hold saja. Moto mereka profit sedikit jual, rugi banyak tahan<\/em>. Status trading tiba-tiba berganti dari trader menjadi investor dadakan. Hhmmm, gak gitu juga bambang… Kalau anda tetap membela diri, artinya anda kurang jago analisa. Karena nyatanya harga turun.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Tentang Averaging Down<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Masih lanjut cerita. Setelah itu mereka membuka Youtube dan Google untuk mencari solusi. Biar saya tebak, pasti mayoritas jawabannya adalah averaging down<\/em>? Iya kan? Entah variasi sistem martingale kek, anti-martingale, pyramiding, bla bla bla…. wkwk..<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Buat yang belum tahu, averaging down itu teknik beli saham ketika harga turun, kalau turun maka beli lagi. Harapannya kalau naik untuk besar karena rata-rata harga saham kita murah. Simak ilustrasi seperti berikut:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"\"\r\n
PPRO tahun 2018<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Jadi sebenarnya ketika kita averaging down itu, pembelian kita akan di rata-rata. Contoh sederhana beli di harga Rp200 x 2 lot dan beli lagi di Rp100 x 3 lot. Maka rumusnya adalah: (200×2 + 100×3) \/ (2+3) = (400+300) \/ 5 = 700\/5 = Rp140. Artinya, sekarang sama saja kita punya saham bernilai Rp140 sebanyak 5 lot. Dan nanti kalau naik maka kita bisa UNTUNG BESARR!!!!!! Cek kelanjutan chart di atas:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"\"\r\n
PPRO di awal tahun 2019<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Sekarang modal kita sudah balik. Aduh senengnya…. Mau langsung dijual atau hold lagi ya? Siapa tahu harga saham makin naik tahun depan? Hehe… Sekedar informasi, saham PPRO sekarang sudah ndlosor mas<\/em>. Saham reguler itu berhenti ketika menyentuh Rp50. Lihat kelanjutannya lagi:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"\"\r\n
PPRO di tahun 2019 dan 2020<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bayangkan sendiri jika anda mengulag perbuatan tadi. Turun beli, turun beli lagi. Iya kalau naik. Jika anda memang sudah tahu harga akan naik, kenapa tidak borong saja ketika harga sudah benar-benar di bawah hayo? <\/strong>Kenapa anda mau-maunya tetap beli di harga mahal? Ngeles pastinya… Saya paham hal ini karena saya dulu juga begitu haha…<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Tips:<\/strong> Bukan berarti avg. down jelek. Saya ingatkan, avg. down hanya cocok kalau anda memang sudah pro jago analisa fundamental dan teknikal. Pemula jangan coba-coba. Hal ini juga hanya bisa dilakukan dengan asusmsi dana anda cukup besar<\/strong> atau modal terus bertambah tak terbatas<\/strong>. Jadi sejak awal memang sengaja, bukan karena takut jual.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Kadang ada kasus dimana anda tidak diperbolehkan cut loss<\/em> karena suatu aturan di tempat anda, seperti di BUMN. Karena kalau asal cutloss akan dianggap memanipulasi pasar. Barulah avg. down cocok sebagai alternatif cutloss dengan cara menurunkan harga rata-rata seperti ini.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Intinya, buat investor tidak masalah karena sama saja mereka menabung\/cicil beli. Tapi untuk trader biasa itu sama saja bunuh diri.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Sekarang kita bahas cut loss<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Kenapa Average Down tidak direkomendasikan? Bisa dicontohkan?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Oke begini. Misal kita punya uang Rp10jt (ini bukan total modal, tapi sudah dibagi sekian persen ketemu Rp10jt). Uang tadi khusus dialokasikan untuk beli saham X . Pertama beli Rp5jt di Rp2000<\/strong>.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Skenario<\/strong><\/strong> A:<\/strong> Harga turun ke Rp1800, lalu turun lagi ke Rp1000, akhirnya naik ke Rp1500.<\/span><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Cut Loss (CL):<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    \r\n
  • CL di Rp1800 (turun ketika masih 10%). Hasil sell = 4,5jt dari pembelian pertama.<\/li>\r\n
  • Ketika di Rp1000 beli 9,5jt (total modal). Ketika naik ke Rp1500 maka akan untung 50% (dari harga Rp1000) = 9,5jt * 50% = untung Rp4,75 jt<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    avg.down:<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

      \r\n
    • Ketika di Rp1800 dibiarkan, dan di Rp1000 beli lagi 5jt (avg akan = Rp1500, dari harga Rp2000+Rp1000 bagi dua).<\/li>\r\n
    • Akhirnya ketika naik ke Rp1500, maka profit 0% (dari avg. Rp1500) = 10jt * 0% = tidak untung. Malah rugi waktu, tenaga, fee, & kesempatan profit.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

      Skenario<\/strong> B:<\/strong> Harga turun terus, anjlok, bahkan sampai parkir di Rp50. Akhirnya saham X delisting (dicabut dari bursa)<\/span>
      cut loss:<\/strong> kehilangan Rp500rb (hasil cut loss di Rp1800)
      avg. down:<\/strong> tamat sudah<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

      Jadi satu-satunya jalan cutloss dong?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

      Jika berdasarkan analisa anda harga masih akan turun– serta sekarang ada kesempatan maka segera keluar. Ketika cut loss kita akan dihadapkan dengan rasa menyesal. Apalagi baru pertama kali. Tapi, bagi saya daripada kepikiran terus mending buang saja. Mau nanti balik naik\/makin turun itu bukan urusan kita lagi. Kan bisa analisa lagi. Ada pepatah, \u201cJangan menyesali yang sudah terjadi. Jika itu baik, maka itu bagus untukmu. Jika itu buruk, maka itu pengalaman bagimu\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Peristiwa “nyangkut” biasa ketika kita membeli saham di harga mahal, sedangkan sekarang harga malah murah. Tapi harga saham tak kunjung naik. Dalam konteks ini, saham kita belum dijual sehingga terjadi floating loss. Artinya, nilai...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[5],"class_list":["post-21","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-trading","tag-trading"],"yoast_head":"\nSaham Nyangkut Pilih Cut Loss atau Averaging Down? - Muhaaz Saham<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/muhaaz.com\/saham\/saham-nyangkut-pilih-cut-loss-atau-averaging-down\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"id_ID\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Saham Nyangkut Pilih Cut Loss atau Averaging Down? - Muhaaz Saham\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Peristiwa “nyangkut” biasa ketika kita membeli saham di harga mahal, sedangkan sekarang harga malah murah. Tapi harga saham tak kunjung naik. Dalam konteks ini, saham kita belum dijual sehingga terjadi floating loss. 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Tapi harga saham tak kunjung naik. Dalam konteks ini, saham kita belum dijual sehingga terjadi floating loss. 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